Why US plastic pyrolysis projects stall before scale

A plant that runs close to its nameplate spreads fixed costs and debt service over more output, so it brings in more cash. Steady cash keeps lenders and owners confident, which keeps money flowing for repairs and upgrades, and those keep the plant running.

In reverse, a plant far below capacity cannot cover its costs, its backers lose confidence and repairs stop. Brightmark's Indiana plant was at about 5% of capacity, according to court filings, when it missed a bond payment in March 2025.

• When utilisation (sustained operation) rises, net operating cash rises.
• When net operating cash rises, lender and owner confidence rises.
• When lender and owner confidence rises, funding for repairs and upgrades rises.
• When funding for repairs and upgrades rises, utilisation (sustained operation) rises, after a delay.

Why it is reinforcing: None of the 4 links are negative. An even number of negative links makes a loop reinforcing: a change keeps feeding itself, in either direction.

What still needs testing: Freepoint's $50 million ING facility was non-recourse, so lenders relied on the plant's own cash flow. Lender terms are private, so the team plans bounded scenarios rather than invented figures.

Cleaner feed, with less PVC, PET, moisture and dirt, turns more of each tonne into oil that a buyer will accept. More saleable oil brings in more cash, and cash pays for sorting and preparing the feed, which keeps contamination down.

In the other direction, a plant short of cash buys cheaper, dirtier feed or skips preparation. Its yield falls, and it has even less to spend on feed.

• When feedstock contamination rises, saleable oil yield falls.
• When saleable oil yield rises, net operating cash rises.
• When net operating cash rises, spending on feed preparation rises.
• When spending on feed preparation rises, feedstock contamination falls, after a delay.

Why it is reinforcing: Two of the 4 links are negative. An even number of negative links makes a loop reinforcing: a change keeps feeding itself, in either direction.

What still needs testing: Feedstock guidelines written for the Alliance to End Plastic Waste ask for at least 85% polyethylene and polypropylene and no more than about 1% PVC, and say that PET, nylon and paper lower both yield and oil quality. Advocacy groups citing Freepoint's air permit say it allowed PVC in the feed. Why Freepoint's yield fell is still unknown.

In Ohio a pyrolysis unit counts as recycling only while more than 70% of the plastic it processes, by weight, becomes oil that is produced and marketed, checked each quarter. Falling below the test raises regulatory pressure, which can curtail or stop the plant. A plant that runs less has less cash for feed preparation, so yield stays low.

• When saleable oil yield rises, regulatory pressure on the plant falls, after a delay.
• When regulatory pressure on the plant rises, utilisation (sustained operation) falls (a possible link, still to test).
• When utilisation (sustained operation) rises, net operating cash rises.
• When net operating cash rises, spending on feed preparation rises.
• When spending on feed preparation rises, feedstock contamination falls, after a delay.
• When feedstock contamination rises, saleable oil yield falls.

Why it is reinforcing: Four of the 6 links are negative. An even number of negative links makes a loop reinforcing: a change keeps feeding itself, in either direction.

What still needs testing: Freepoint reported three quarters below 70% and suspended operations about a month after Ohio EPA's April 2026 notice. The timing fits, but the cause is not established, so that link is dashed. A March 2026 federal proposal would take pyrolysis out of the incinerator rules.

The yield test is meant to correct itself. When yield falls below the test, regulatory pressure rises, which pushes the operator to clean up its feed and its process. Cleaner feed raises yield, and the pressure eases.

• When feedstock contamination rises, saleable oil yield falls.
• When saleable oil yield rises, regulatory pressure on the plant falls, after a delay.
• When regulatory pressure on the plant rises, spending on feed preparation rises.
• When spending on feed preparation rises, feedstock contamination falls, after a delay.

Why it is balancing: Three of the 4 links are negative. An odd number of negative links makes a loop balancing: it pushes a change back toward where it started.

What still needs testing: Ohio EPA gave Freepoint until the end of May 2026 to submit a plan for meeting the incinerator rules, not a plan for raising yield. Whether pressure leads an operator to raise its yield, add emission controls (B2) or stop running (R3) is the case question the team set itself.

Releases that people can see or smell, such as black smoke or flaring, draw complaints and opposition. Complaints bring inspections and violation notices, and notices push the operator to add emission controls and fix problems, which brings releases back down.

• When community opposition and complaints rises, regulatory pressure on the plant rises.
• When regulatory pressure on the plant rises, emission controls and corrective work rises.
• When emission controls and corrective work rises, releases and visible incidents falls, after a delay.
• When releases and visible incidents rises, community opposition and complaints rises.

Why it is balancing: One of the 4 links is negative. An odd number of negative links makes a loop balancing: it pushes a change back toward where it started.

What still needs testing: Both cases show the first half of this loop. At Freepoint, one Ohio EPA notice followed residents' video of black smoke, and another reportedly cited dozens of flare releases without the required controls. At Resynergi, about 600 feet from a school, residents objected before three air district notices for building and operating without a permit. The team's model still needs the link from community groups to the regulator (N1).